To those opposing the Sable Offshore Corporation’s efforts to start up production of its Santa Ynez Unit, I simply ask you, if you’re old enough (which most opponents are not), to remember 40 years ago, when two to three oil tankers a day were transporting up to 300,000 barrels a day of Exxon’s oil from its Offshore Storage & Treatment Facility (OSTF).
Exxon, to avoid having to deal with the County of Santa Barbara or the State of California, processed all the oil extracted from its platforms in the OSTF, located precisely 3.1 miles offshore, placing it in the Outer Continental Shelf solely under federal jurisdiction. At the time, the environmental community, and environmental leaders, such as Linda Krop – a member of the Santa Barbara County Board of Supervisors, just as I was – wanted to end the oil tankering, and we all knew the only way to do that was to eliminate the OSTFs and bring them onshore, where they would be under county and state jurisdiction. That led to years of negotiations, but ultimately, with the full support of the environmental community, Exxon agreed to come onshore, electrify its platforms, and eliminate all tankering; the oil would be brought by pipeline from the platforms to the Las Flores Refinery, onshore, located in Las Flores Canyon.
That was 40 years ago. The Refugio oil spill occurred due to a rupture in the Plains pipeline that transported the oil from the platform to the refinery onshore. Exxon purchased Plains and the pipeline, and Sable purchased Exxon. Sable took over from Exxon, and after years of repairs, remediation, inspections, and improvements, the State Fire Marshall and the County of SB Energy Division last year verified that the pipeline was in full compliance with all state and county operational standards. Indeed, this pipeline has been inspected and reviewed more than any other oil operation in the country. There is no question that, from an engineering perspective, this pipeline, with such review, is probably the safest oil pipeline existing in the United States. So, last March, Sable was ready to start up operations. And that’s when the same environmentalists who insisted on bringing the oil onshore 40 years ago, placed in motion a series of lawsuits and administrative challenges to prevent any production by Sable from ever going forward.
For those of you anti-oil, that may sound great, notwithstanding that Sable has vested rights, and the county and state, by shutting them down, run the risk of substantial Taking Claims under the 5th Amendment of the US Constitution that could lead to damages of up to one billion dollars. But I fully understand that those who have drunk the anti-oil Kool-Aid couldn’t care less if the county or state is liable for a billion dollars in a taking claim.
So, here is something I hope those who have any common sense or reason left regarding this subject matter, to consider: The current President is Donald Trump. Donald Trump is “Drill, Baby, Drill” pro-oil and can’t stand California or Governor Newsom. For Sable, if the environmentalists or the State of California don’t quickly come to the negotiating table and negotiate in good faith, Sable will go to the US Department of Energy and get everything it needs to get the permits to resume production of their oil in a new OSTF. Sable has already given a bid to a company to purchase one. According to records with the SEC, Sable on November 10, 2025, announced a $250 million private placement of shares. On November 12, 2025, the placement closed escrow. So, the wheels are in motion by Sable to say in the coming months, “Hasta la vista” to the County of Santa Barbara and State of California, and go back to what it did 40 years ago: produce and transport, with up to three oil tankers a day in our beautiful Santa Barbara Channel, all their oil.
I can assure you of a couple of things. For those of you who want to gamble that you can win by forcing Sable into bankruptcy, you won’t. The simple basics of investing are to invest when you know there is a sure thing. As far as Sable is concerned, they have a sure thing if they go the federal route. They have a president who will say yes to whatever they want. They have one of the largest offshore oil reserves in the Continental United States. And they can extract all that oil without the State or county’s approval. From a Sable Board of Directors perspective, perhaps their only blunder was to waste the time and money over the last year, since Trump was elected, to deal in good faith with California and the county. But that is quickly changing. If they go the sure federal route, there will be plenty of investors to invest in making it a reality.
Here are Some Predictions
Either the environmentalists, the state, and the county start dealing in good faith with Sable to keep them onshore, or they will end up forever offshore, and we will have forever two to three oil tankers a day in our channel. As they pivot to investing in the OSTF, there will come a time when they will no longer be willing to negotiate. To Governor Newsom, I say pay attention and potentially take the lead, as you did with Diablo Canyon, and direct your staff and state agencies to assess the situation, negotiate a way forward for Sable to be forever onshore and take a victory lap that you kept one of the largest offshore oil reserves in the Continental United States from being removed from state and county jurisdiction and handing it over to Trump and his federal agencies to regulate.
If the Governor doesn’t intervene, and Sable goes offshore and oil tankering resumes, for you die-hard environmentalists that rely on your environmental organizations like EDC, Get Oil Out, Surfriders, and Center for Biological Diversity, you will be able to thank your leaders like Linda Krop for bringing back oil tankering.
Oh, and I forgot, if she and the other environmental leaders tell you they will stop Sable from offloading their oil tankers in California, they don’t need California. Every day, empty oil tankers from Iraq and Brazil that have brought their oil to California (more than 75% of the state’s 42 million barrels per month of crude oil supplies are imported by oil tanker) are returning, and Sable’s oil can be offloaded on those empty oil tankers.
That’s how the transportation network of the energy industry works.
And here’s a plea to people who really care about the environment – like me – and don’t want oil tankering. I want to leave you with some environmental facts to consider. The state has an opportunity to immediately replace one to two million barrels of foreign oil per month and eliminate the carbon footprint of those oil tanker trips with cleaner Sable oil that would be produced in Sable’s Santa Ynez Onshore Unit. Restarting the Sable Project will provide 10-20% of California’s in-state oil production.
Finally, producing oil locally reduces greenhouse gas emissions associated with importing foreign oil to California to meet current demand. This reduction in long-distance marine transportation can lower carbon emissions by up to 75% compared to current import methods.
Governor Newsom, you can intervene and stop this craziness from happening, and take a victory lap that you stopped oil tankering from happening and kept Sable under state and county jurisdiction.
And for Linda Krop, if you’re reading this, I really hope five years from now that I am not saying “I told you so.” But then, I won’t say a word; what we see in the Santa Barbara Channel will tell us exactly how the Sable scenario played out.
•••
Mike Stoker currently serves as President & CEO of the Santa Barbara County Taxpayer Advocacy Center. Stoker is a land use, environmental, and business law attorney. He is also a National Advisor in the area of energy, environment, and real estate for the National Law Firm of Manatt, Phelps & Philips. He has previously served on the Santa Barbara County Board of Supervisors, was Chairman of the CA Agricultural Labor Relations Board, Majority Counsel to Congress, CA Deputy Secretary of State and served as the Southwest Administrator of the US EPA overseeing a population of 75 million people.
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We are importing the exact same crude from the Amazon basin to refine here, so that we don’t have to retool refineries. So we are enriching foreign nations in South America while we sit on our on gold mine of the same exact oil, killing jobs and revenue here.
And for what? To increase CO2 emissions by shipping it here, going against their entire argument in the first place.
Norway is a liberal progressive, environmentally-conscious, nation that drills in the North Sea, a much harsher environment. They have high safety standards. The oil revenue has made their country wealthy. They have a sovereign oil wealth fund that’s up to $1.5T that pays for everyone’s college, etc. Imagine removing something like state property taxes with an oil fund here! Imagine CA flooding the world market and ruining Putin’s ability to war on Ukraine! Imagine fuel prices at half of what they are today!
Nothing we are doing in CA makes any sense. We use the oil anyway, pay more for it, make ourselves less wealthy, less jobs, and do it with increased emissions.
I saw a statement from UCSD saying that 75% of new admissions can’t do basic algebra. That may explain everything here in CA...
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