Bob Smith and I spoke the other day, and his comment was that he needs the independents to vote for him as well as getting out the Republican base. We need to do all we can to rid ourselves of the misrepresentation of our area by Hart and Carbajal. Both are awful examples of everything wrong with Democrat policies.
https://abev.optiqdata.com/ Click to get updates on Prop 50 . Enter in search bar US Congressional District 24. Scroll down. Then enter your school district, or other districts, which I did. DEMOCRATS and elders are voting in high numbers except for in a few specific districts where Young Republicans came out in force. Democrats will win if we can’t deliver NO Votes. As of Friday:
2,129,661
Returned Ballot
D+22.6%
Return Margin
No Party Preference voters are the deciders! See for yourself by taking 5 minutes to click & scroll.
More Republicans and NPPs need to vote. What happened to civic duty?!?
More important than changes in voter registration is whether people will actually vote for change. It’s pretty nonsensical to see thousands of people, with our politicians, protesting the “bad man” in the White House while California and the Central Coast are objectively at the bottom in almost every measurable category - cost of living, cost of housing, cost of energy, cost of gasoline, homeownership rates under 40, job creation, homelessness, poverty, and 65% of our kids not meeting 12th-grade standards.
Our congressman has done nothing for five terms. No major legislation passed, not a ranking member on any key committee, no meaningful wins for this district. This is what happens in either party when a supermajority exists - no competition, no accountability, and seats held forever. You either get the self-serving career politicians like Pelosi and McConnell who get rich off the system, or the nice-guy placeholders like Carbajal, who you wouldn’t have run your kid’s lemonade stand, yet keeps getting rubber-stamp reelected.
Meanwhile, thousands of people are being manipulated into protesting things like immigration enforcement because it gives these same politicians a villain to point at instead of being held accountable for their own failures. Bill Clinton deported 12 million, Obama 8 million, Trump 1.5 million, yet somehow this administration is “the problem”? Farmers and hospitality managers will tell you immigration enforcement has been here for decades.
It’s all political theater designed to keep people against each other.
So how bad does California have to get before people stop voting for the same people and actually demand results? When do we decide enough is enough and bring some balance back here?
“So how bad does California have to get before people stop voting for the same people?” Answer - never. Why?
a) People are stupid
b) They believe the Commie-Dem pablum- promises.
We need a street-fighting ass-kicker like Trump less interested in sermonizing the moral high ground and more interested in winning. Promise the people what they want to hear even if it needs to be a little ‘creative’ with the truth. Like Vince Lombardi said - “Winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing!”
Boss Tweed (New York) had the right idea - controlled Tammany Hall, stole millions, and still had crowds cheering him at parades. My kinda guy! It's called - p-o-l-i-t-i-c-s !
Reply to Kimberly Caldwell – “Is the Central Coast Still Blue?”
Kimberly — fantastic piece. You nailed what a lot of us here on the Central Coast have been seeing but couldn’t quite put numbers to. The tide really is turning, and it’s refreshing to finally see someone back it up with facts instead of talking points.
Your breakdown of the voter shift across SLO, Santa Barbara, and Ventura counties is eye-opening. People are tired of the same recycled promises and the same names on the ballot. The energy is different this time — you can feel it at the local level, from small businesses to kitchen tables.
It’s about time voters here demand real leadership again. Salud “Crocked Salud” Carbajal’s long run of coasting on party loyalty is coming to an end. Time to hand him his final walking papers and let the people of the Central Coast be heard loud and clear.
Keep shining a light, Kimberly — great reporting and spot-on perspective.
No On 50! Save Prop 13!
Require verifiable VOTER ID!
Save CA and the Central Coast! #BobSmithForCongress
Explains why the Democrat Legislatures want to change the Census lines. They’re losing CA and need to harvest all the votes they can in new districts that will help them.
Curious though. If before the Kamala/Trump election Dems lost millions in voters it’s odd that the election was that close.
Most who update their party preference are likely to vote.
Either way Midterms will be interesting as CA & NY become battleground states.
Thank you Kimberly. This is the reason that the Dems was Prop 50 to pass isbecause the Dems know they will never win an election again. They change the rules in order to win.
I also had read that three Counties in California were turning red including SLO County. In addition since February in California there were 4.5 k new Rebulican voters registered and only 198 New Democrat Voters registered.
Thankfully, they have to get their scheme passed by CA voters. Many No Party Preference voters will join with GOP in voting no. But the victory always belongs to those who show up and vote. Encourage your neighbors to turn in their ballots!
Prop 50 will only impact congressional districts. We can plan on getting rid of the Dem supermajority regardless of how Nov 4th shakes out.
"CD 24 is one or two points from being competitive"
What am I missing here? As of Nov 2024, the district had 227,000 Democratic voters and 101,000 Republican voters. How much movement has there been since then? Hopefully more than a few points. This is Carbajal's District.
Hi Lou, Thanks for question. I stated that CD24 is one or two points from being as competitive on paper as some districts that Republicans won in 2024. A lot more goes into a winning campaign of course: articulate candidate, good ground game, enthusiastic donors etc. But they all start with the raw data - I'm posing the question of whether you can still call the Central Coast a "reliably blue" area based on the current trends.
For example, compare the following data points:
CA Congressional District 11 (Nancy Pelosi)
Dems: 63.48%
GOP: 7.49%
NPP: 23.54%
Other: 5.49%
This is a safe blue district. No matter how good your GOP candidate is, you can't beat 63% registered Dems
CA Congressional District 43 (Maxine Waters)
Dems: 58.19%
GOP: 11.88%
NPP: 22.32%
Other: 7.61%
This is a safe blue district
CA Congressional District 22 (David Valadao Republican won)
Dems: 39.79%
GOP: 28.41%
NPP: 23.65%
Other: 8.15%
This district has been won by GOP for several election cycles. It is always listed as a toss-up during election season
CA Congressional District 26 (Julia Brownley)
Dems: 41.87%
GOP: 29.73%
NPP: 20.76%
Other: 7.64%
Ventura County GOP is growing quickly. They now have a larger GOP base than Valadao's district. The Dems in Ventura (41.87% only have 2.08% more voters than the Dems in Fresno (39.79%) who have lost CD-22 multiple times).
CA Congressional District 24 (Salud Carbajal)
Dems: 44.91%
GOP: 26.93%
NPP: 20.03%
Other: 8.13%
GOP is growing and is currently 1.48% behind Valadao's "base" voters who help him reach NPP with their volunteer hours and donations. This district crosses into both SLO and Ventura County where the GOP is out-registering Dems by 5x.
The raw data shows Carbajal's district is a lot closer to Ventura's CD26 and CD22 than it is to Nancy Pelosi's or Maxine Waters'. We have a plurality of parties on the Central Coast, not a one-party monopoly.
Kimberly, a 45% Dem and 27% Repub is not a competitive district. It would take a very well-known moderate GOP candidate who has a lot of money to have a chance. With all due respect to the current challenger, that is not the situation we have in the CD 24. In CD 22 you have a very popular incumbent who has been in office since 2012. The situation isn't comparable.
Prop 50 is going to pass because this is a very blue state that doesn't like Trump. I wish it was otherwise but I am not going to engage in wishful thinking. Republicans need to redistrict every red state in the country to counter this.
What is bothersome is the party divide in small city politics (small town/city planning commissions and city councils). In our small city (5000 population) our recently elected mayor campaigned on making our city “more liberal”. Not sure how that impacts decisions on building or water/sewer issues. But it does impact declarations for celebrations, decorations/banners hanging from city light poles or the painting of crosswalks. And, those are the items that seem to divide the city (new residents from SB to LA versus residents with longstanding history).
On the Sec of State website, each County's stats are displayed across two pages. Scroll down and you will see that the 3rd largest category in the state is NPP (no party preference where all independently-minded unaffiliated voters are counted). In SB county they make up 20.85% of the electorate (51,743 voters). Combine that with the Republicans, and you discover how the Dems have less than 50% of the voters in a supposedly "safe" Dem county (114k out of 248k). Approx half of the NPP voted for Trump in the last election. And if you look at non-partisan ballot issues like Prop 36, they are combining with all non-Dem voters to give the conservatives the victory. All of the data points show people leaving the Dem party, sitting on the fence as an NPP for a while, and then finding a home in the GOP.
Three of CA's major cities ousted their Soros-backed progressive DAs or Mayors or in some cases both in the past 2 years. The Central Coast may not be red yet, but it isn't dark blue anymore.
Excellent, Kimberly. I know that California is becoming less and less lib-left. I grew up here and can see the signs. The Democratic Party knows it, too. And that’s why they will cheat their way to winning Prop 50. Our governor will do anything he can in the next year to show he’s really in power, not Trump. I do believe he’s that crazy. Or coked-out, same difference. Of course I’m not saying our governor would actually do cocaine, that’s just Zelenskyy! Newsom just acts like Pacino in Scarface! He’s really a down-to-earth regular narcissist-sociopath. “You think this state is going red? It sure is, my kind of red, China red. And say hello to my little friend.”
Yes, the Central Coast is still blue. People don’t change their registration much and the R advantage in new registrations is tiny as a share of district voters.
1) The statistics being cited in this article and your report are a rounding error relative to current registration rates.
2) Democrats outstrip Republican registration by a factor of almost 2:1 in CA, a 5-million vote margin.
3) How big are recent shifts? Between 2020 and 2024, the Dems’ share of registration dropped from 46.13% to 45.83%. Republicans don’t need a net advantage of thousands of voters in voter registration shifts, they need an advantage of hundreds of thousands to get anywhere close to making CA competitive.
The best studies in poli sci show that voter ID has minimal effects on voter registration or turnout one way or another. See work by Justin Grimmer.
I say this as someone who would like CA to have a viable two-party competition: statistical “analyses” like this don’t do the Republican Party any favors.
I agree that the lack of competition is not good. Having grown up in a purple swing area of the country, where each party pivots towards the center because seats can be lost, better candidates have to bubble up in both parties, and the general voter political IQ is much higher on issues. Compare Northern VA, Central AZ, PA to voter political IQ here; it's not even close. It's SB, it's sunny and blue skies, what's wrong? Competition with better candidates and better-informed voters is a win-win.
Case in point, outside of our district, no one knows Salud Carbajal. He's never on shows like Bill Maher, Meet the Press, CNN's roundtable, etc. He's only passed one piece of legislation (renaming a post office), and he doesn't sit on any major committees as a ranking member or lead an appropriation. Our district is at the bottom of federal discretionary funding, and our Universities are at the bottom of federal research dollars.
Outside of Vandenberg, our district is invisible on the federal level because our leader is invisible; this is an objective fact. But he has a great smile, posts a social daily, and Democrats won't run a better leader against him because all they care about is the vote 100% their way with a safe seat, and his campaign funds to use nationally for the DNC from wealthy SB. That's it. But ask a lot of voters here what he does, what pieces of legislation he's passed, what he's done for immigration reform, you won't get a single real answer; they have no clue. Talk to an average person in District-1 PA, and both sides will give you a factual laundry list of what Brian Fitzpatrick is or is not doing for them.
Bob, I'll vote for you and I'm a DINO, or more so an Independent/declining to state. As a DINO I've never voted for the speakers I saw yesterday at the No Kings thing. Not Salud, Gregg, Moniuqe, Laura, Hannah-Beth or any others. . . except for my buddy Eric Friedman. That being said the numbers are against you and the writer here, Kimberly.
SB County has 114k registered Dems, 62k registered Republicans, and 10k Indies.
And I'm sorry Kimberley but the inroads you site will not change the outcome. You folks don't have the votes.
Dan, thanks for the support. You sound like you're in the same boat as my wife, a Democrat who doesn't identify with many of our politicians and how far left the party has gone. She's also an Eric fan.
There's a mistake in your numbers, though. First, remember that the district covers all three counties, so there are many more voters than just SB. In SB County though, there are over 65k independents/NPP. American Independence is a minor party conservative, which is at 10k; however, last time I looked at an article on it for CA, 80% of them didn't realize that and marked it as "Independent." There are approximately 52k NPP voters and about 8k from other minor parties. So add that altogether to get closer to ~65k.
So in a midterm, I need 28k more of you and my wife from that pool with crossover votes! A R doesn't get much more independent thinking than I am, so that's the goal with an appeal to moderates who want change here. I'm providing an alternative with a track record of actual leadership and getting things done.
I will not dispute you, I will just say this. My mother, a great grandmother was wheeled to the Texas home of hers. My sister made a sigh that said, “When Grandma shows up to a protest you know things are bad.”
The point is just because you're registered with party doesn't mean people vote along party lines. I know many Dems voting No on 50,so your point is not accurate. Three Counties in Cali are turning red including our Neighbors to the north SLO.
It's hard to deal with the truth but unfortunately the Dem party is dying and this last nonsense,dem shutdown and ridiculous protest, just dug the grave even deeper.
Thanks for the comment Dan. I think the current registration trends are proving that the GOP has stopped the Dems' "forward progress" where we were slowly becoming a one-party state over the last decade and has started to move the numbers back to the center. SB County is interestingly a near miniature of the state. The state is 44.96% Dem, 25.26% GOP and 22.55% NPP. SB County is 46.16% Dem, 25.24% GOP and 20.85% NPP. The GOP added an entire percentage point in the past year in both data sets.
SLO County and Ventura County have higher percentages of GOP than the state average.
Ventura's Assembly District 42 has the following stats:
Dems: 40.06%
GOP: 31.53%
NPP: 20.85%
Jeff Gonzalez won his seat in Riverside County in Nov 2024, flipping AD-36 red. His district's stats are:
Dems: 40.92%
GOP: 29.12%
NPP: 22.60%
As you can see, AD-42 has a higher percentage of GOP compared to NPP than AD-36, and they are super close to bringing the Dems below 40%. I think that it very much a toss-up seat heading into 2026.
Exactly. If the Republicans want sane elected officials in CA they need to win with fiscally responsible, moderate, and economically literate Democrats. People like Daniel Lurie or Matt Mahan.
That’s why I strongly support Bob Smith for Congress both donating to his campaign and volunteering time! We need Bob Smith representation. We each must work to unseat reader Salud.
Yes, I was excited that Daniel Lurie won against London Breed. The uber-progressive wing of the Dem party had gone too far left. Lurie will hopefully make San Fran business friendly again.
Where do you get your wacky numbers? The idea is directionally correct - the GOP as has added over 30K since Feb 25 and the Dem less at 26k. So the difference is close to your 4.5. But to write the democrats have only added 198 is just wrong.
As of October 2025, California has seen a slight increase in Republican voters, gaining about 48,000 new registrations, while the Democratic Party has gained only 190 new voters. Currently, nearly half of all voters are registered Democrats, while 25% are registered Republican
No Voter ID means anyone can vote. Voter roles in California were cleaned up recently but still until Voter ID is implemented anyone can vote especially by mail.
Both sides are delusional about the effect of voter ID. Voter ID won’t disfranchise more than a handful of voters and there is not some army of ineligible voters casting ballots, and the Republicans have never been able to show that this is a problem involving more than a few hundred voters per state. Sloppy/slow voter file maintenance is not evidence of fraud.
For example, unbeknownst to me I was left on the voter rolls in my hometown for 15 years even after registering m in four other cities of residence at various points as I moved in my 20s. That’s not fraud, and no one has shown that voter file deadwood drives any fraud.
What does matter in CA is that old white conservatives are dying and only immigrants and nonwhite ethnic groups have high fertility rates. The Republicans can pick up those new voters on the margins but they are losing the demographic battle.
The Older DEMS are dying out and being replaced with Republicans and new Registration in all of California reflects. Living in a bubble in SB and not seeing the recent of California isn't the true interpretation of voters in California.
Why do Dems love their illegals so much,beacuse they are there biggest voters and since anyone who mails in a ballot without ID checked or residency than those votes are processes and counted.
That's why the Dems promise the illegals with free this and that and why they shut down our government and don't want to lose them or their illegal votes.
I have seen the white population explode with new births and multiple children. Although difficult to afford much in this county,it is happening
Do you trust the reporting on Noozhawk? I do sometimes, which is why I question their story today that 13,000 people attended the No Kings rally is SB. I was there and I have no way of counting, but 10k wouldn't surprise me.
Now, my friend GM, who are these 10,000 SB residents that showed up? Count as many voters as you want in Kimberley's statistics. Do you MAGA folks show up in these numbers, locally? And when have you ever seen this many people show up for any of your local political events?
And what did the little temper tantrum do for your political party except show how ridiculous these are. All funded by Soros,Rothschild and Billionaires. Supported by Communist parties,see your Flyer.
Yes Conservatives showed up in Large numbers to Charlie Kirks memorial and other gatherings.
All this protest was a whiny fest because you didn't win an election.
Maybe all those people could of volunteered to help and make a difference in the community and instead of making yourselves feel good as narcissist do.
Voter ID is worthless unless and until Proof of Citizenship required to register, and there’s a paid mandate to Counties to annually clean their roles. Why did 3 ballots get mailed for my son? Why do DACAs ask if it’s ok to cast ballots mailed to them?
And yet the Democrats continue to enjoy a huge advantage.
I’ll be happy to make a side bet with anyone on this list—with favorable odds—that no Republican will win office in any of the Central Coast assembly, State Senate, or Congressional districts through 2030. DM me.
It’s not gambling when it’s a guaranteed payout. Above all, people who don’t back up their predictions with investments/stakes can’t be taken seriously.
It's going to be an interesting election cycle, especially when many provisions of the big. Beautiful Bill kick in next month and Republican leader can no longer pretend tariffs are NOT paid, in the end, by consumers.
Kimberly, I never trust stories that are based with statistics and "facts." As you know, there are always alternative facts.
The latest statistics that I found are this, 114,000 registered Democrats in SB county. 62,000 Republicans and 10,000 Independents. Even if your changes in statistics are correct you/Republicans are still on the losing side. It gives me no joy to state this but I think it's obvious.
There are only a handful of races that cover SB County as a whole, District Attorney, Sheriff, etc.
Our Assembly, Senate, and Congressional districts all cross county lines because our counties aren't populous enough for their own district. The Independent Commission has done a very good job though in trying to keep individual towns "whole." SLO and Ventura Counties are becoming far more conservative, which will likely push our district races into "toss-up" category if these trends hold up in the next year. SLO County in fact only has 5200 more Dem voters than GOP. When you add in the NPP numbers, you find out why SLO County's tough-on-crime sheriff Ian Parkinson and DA Dan Dow both ran unopposed in their last election. The Dems don't do well in county-wide races.
Bob Smith and I spoke the other day, and his comment was that he needs the independents to vote for him as well as getting out the Republican base. We need to do all we can to rid ourselves of the misrepresentation of our area by Hart and Carbajal. Both are awful examples of everything wrong with Democrat policies.
And for Pity sake, get out and vote NO ON 50 !
https://abev.optiqdata.com/ Click to get updates on Prop 50 . Enter in search bar US Congressional District 24. Scroll down. Then enter your school district, or other districts, which I did. DEMOCRATS and elders are voting in high numbers except for in a few specific districts where Young Republicans came out in force. Democrats will win if we can’t deliver NO Votes. As of Friday:
2,129,661
Returned Ballot
D+22.6%
Return Margin
No Party Preference voters are the deciders! See for yourself by taking 5 minutes to click & scroll.
More Republicans and NPPs need to vote. What happened to civic duty?!?
More important than changes in voter registration is whether people will actually vote for change. It’s pretty nonsensical to see thousands of people, with our politicians, protesting the “bad man” in the White House while California and the Central Coast are objectively at the bottom in almost every measurable category - cost of living, cost of housing, cost of energy, cost of gasoline, homeownership rates under 40, job creation, homelessness, poverty, and 65% of our kids not meeting 12th-grade standards.
Our congressman has done nothing for five terms. No major legislation passed, not a ranking member on any key committee, no meaningful wins for this district. This is what happens in either party when a supermajority exists - no competition, no accountability, and seats held forever. You either get the self-serving career politicians like Pelosi and McConnell who get rich off the system, or the nice-guy placeholders like Carbajal, who you wouldn’t have run your kid’s lemonade stand, yet keeps getting rubber-stamp reelected.
Meanwhile, thousands of people are being manipulated into protesting things like immigration enforcement because it gives these same politicians a villain to point at instead of being held accountable for their own failures. Bill Clinton deported 12 million, Obama 8 million, Trump 1.5 million, yet somehow this administration is “the problem”? Farmers and hospitality managers will tell you immigration enforcement has been here for decades.
It’s all political theater designed to keep people against each other.
So how bad does California have to get before people stop voting for the same people and actually demand results? When do we decide enough is enough and bring some balance back here?
“So how bad does California have to get before people stop voting for the same people?” Answer - never. Why?
a) People are stupid
b) They believe the Commie-Dem pablum- promises.
We need a street-fighting ass-kicker like Trump less interested in sermonizing the moral high ground and more interested in winning. Promise the people what they want to hear even if it needs to be a little ‘creative’ with the truth. Like Vince Lombardi said - “Winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing!”
Boss Tweed (New York) had the right idea - controlled Tammany Hall, stole millions, and still had crowds cheering him at parades. My kinda guy! It's called - p-o-l-i-t-i-c-s !
Reply to Kimberly Caldwell – “Is the Central Coast Still Blue?”
Kimberly — fantastic piece. You nailed what a lot of us here on the Central Coast have been seeing but couldn’t quite put numbers to. The tide really is turning, and it’s refreshing to finally see someone back it up with facts instead of talking points.
Your breakdown of the voter shift across SLO, Santa Barbara, and Ventura counties is eye-opening. People are tired of the same recycled promises and the same names on the ballot. The energy is different this time — you can feel it at the local level, from small businesses to kitchen tables.
It’s about time voters here demand real leadership again. Salud “Crocked Salud” Carbajal’s long run of coasting on party loyalty is coming to an end. Time to hand him his final walking papers and let the people of the Central Coast be heard loud and clear.
Keep shining a light, Kimberly — great reporting and spot-on perspective.
No On 50! Save Prop 13!
Require verifiable VOTER ID!
Save CA and the Central Coast! #BobSmithForCongress
— Walt Hutton
Prop 50 Update: yes is crushing NO. Are Republicans waiting to cast their ballots? Help get out the vote. Text, email, ask others to vote.
2,129,661
Returned Ballots
D+22.6%
Return Margin
In Candidate Bob Smith’s US Congressional District 24:
456,078
Registered Voters
D+18.0%
Registration Advantage
28,534
Prop 50 Returned Ballots
D+26.5% voting YES
Author statement of close registration is incorrect, or I misread it.
Explains why the Democrat Legislatures want to change the Census lines. They’re losing CA and need to harvest all the votes they can in new districts that will help them.
Curious though. If before the Kamala/Trump election Dems lost millions in voters it’s odd that the election was that close.
Most who update their party preference are likely to vote.
Either way Midterms will be interesting as CA & NY become battleground states.
Kim, Nice article. We don't often see the detail and facts presented in your piece. Keep up the good work!
YES, vote NO on Prop 50, as I have already.
Thank you Kimberly. This is the reason that the Dems was Prop 50 to pass isbecause the Dems know they will never win an election again. They change the rules in order to win.
I also had read that three Counties in California were turning red including SLO County. In addition since February in California there were 4.5 k new Rebulican voters registered and only 198 New Democrat Voters registered.
There is hope for California.
Thankfully, they have to get their scheme passed by CA voters. Many No Party Preference voters will join with GOP in voting no. But the victory always belongs to those who show up and vote. Encourage your neighbors to turn in their ballots!
Prop 50 will only impact congressional districts. We can plan on getting rid of the Dem supermajority regardless of how Nov 4th shakes out.
That gives me hope. Thank you.
I certainly hope so! NO on 50. Let us decide. And let’s keep the Charlie Kirk movement going! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
SANTA BARBARA BORN AND RAISED, ALWAYS A REPUBLICAN!
Get Republicans & NPPs to vote!
2,129,661
Returned
D+22.6%
Return Margin
Yes 50 will pass because GOP & NPP voters are MIA
50 will win.
"CD 24 is one or two points from being competitive"
What am I missing here? As of Nov 2024, the district had 227,000 Democratic voters and 101,000 Republican voters. How much movement has there been since then? Hopefully more than a few points. This is Carbajal's District.
Hi Lou, Thanks for question. I stated that CD24 is one or two points from being as competitive on paper as some districts that Republicans won in 2024. A lot more goes into a winning campaign of course: articulate candidate, good ground game, enthusiastic donors etc. But they all start with the raw data - I'm posing the question of whether you can still call the Central Coast a "reliably blue" area based on the current trends.
For example, compare the following data points:
CA Congressional District 11 (Nancy Pelosi)
Dems: 63.48%
GOP: 7.49%
NPP: 23.54%
Other: 5.49%
This is a safe blue district. No matter how good your GOP candidate is, you can't beat 63% registered Dems
CA Congressional District 43 (Maxine Waters)
Dems: 58.19%
GOP: 11.88%
NPP: 22.32%
Other: 7.61%
This is a safe blue district
CA Congressional District 22 (David Valadao Republican won)
Dems: 39.79%
GOP: 28.41%
NPP: 23.65%
Other: 8.15%
This district has been won by GOP for several election cycles. It is always listed as a toss-up during election season
CA Congressional District 26 (Julia Brownley)
Dems: 41.87%
GOP: 29.73%
NPP: 20.76%
Other: 7.64%
Ventura County GOP is growing quickly. They now have a larger GOP base than Valadao's district. The Dems in Ventura (41.87% only have 2.08% more voters than the Dems in Fresno (39.79%) who have lost CD-22 multiple times).
CA Congressional District 24 (Salud Carbajal)
Dems: 44.91%
GOP: 26.93%
NPP: 20.03%
Other: 8.13%
GOP is growing and is currently 1.48% behind Valadao's "base" voters who help him reach NPP with their volunteer hours and donations. This district crosses into both SLO and Ventura County where the GOP is out-registering Dems by 5x.
The raw data shows Carbajal's district is a lot closer to Ventura's CD26 and CD22 than it is to Nancy Pelosi's or Maxine Waters'. We have a plurality of parties on the Central Coast, not a one-party monopoly.
Kimberly, a 45% Dem and 27% Repub is not a competitive district. It would take a very well-known moderate GOP candidate who has a lot of money to have a chance. With all due respect to the current challenger, that is not the situation we have in the CD 24. In CD 22 you have a very popular incumbent who has been in office since 2012. The situation isn't comparable.
Lou- that authored statement is incorrect. How we wish US Congressional D24 was that close. It is not! We’ve work to do!
456,078
Registered Voters
D+18.0%
Registration Advantage
28,534
Prop 50 Returned Ballots
D+26.5% voting YES
Please see my reply to Lou above. Thanks for reading my article!
Prop 50 is going to pass because this is a very blue state that doesn't like Trump. I wish it was otherwise but I am not going to engage in wishful thinking. Republicans need to redistrict every red state in the country to counter this.
What is bothersome is the party divide in small city politics (small town/city planning commissions and city councils). In our small city (5000 population) our recently elected mayor campaigned on making our city “more liberal”. Not sure how that impacts decisions on building or water/sewer issues. But it does impact declarations for celebrations, decorations/banners hanging from city light poles or the painting of crosswalks. And, those are the items that seem to divide the city (new residents from SB to LA versus residents with longstanding history).
On the Sec of State website, each County's stats are displayed across two pages. Scroll down and you will see that the 3rd largest category in the state is NPP (no party preference where all independently-minded unaffiliated voters are counted). In SB county they make up 20.85% of the electorate (51,743 voters). Combine that with the Republicans, and you discover how the Dems have less than 50% of the voters in a supposedly "safe" Dem county (114k out of 248k). Approx half of the NPP voted for Trump in the last election. And if you look at non-partisan ballot issues like Prop 36, they are combining with all non-Dem voters to give the conservatives the victory. All of the data points show people leaving the Dem party, sitting on the fence as an NPP for a while, and then finding a home in the GOP.
Three of CA's major cities ousted their Soros-backed progressive DAs or Mayors or in some cases both in the past 2 years. The Central Coast may not be red yet, but it isn't dark blue anymore.
Excellent, Kimberly. I know that California is becoming less and less lib-left. I grew up here and can see the signs. The Democratic Party knows it, too. And that’s why they will cheat their way to winning Prop 50. Our governor will do anything he can in the next year to show he’s really in power, not Trump. I do believe he’s that crazy. Or coked-out, same difference. Of course I’m not saying our governor would actually do cocaine, that’s just Zelenskyy! Newsom just acts like Pacino in Scarface! He’s really a down-to-earth regular narcissist-sociopath. “You think this state is going red? It sure is, my kind of red, China red. And say hello to my little friend.”
I think you have Gavin Derngement Syndrome. Or bare minimum Dem DS.
Hello Thomas please see my post above I think SB Currentors
all have the "Both Sides Bullshit Syndrome" they all just
cannot stand Hypocrites in this Town.
Lol, right on, Walter!
Lol! Good one, Mr. John. But I couldn't possibly have a more sever case of Gavin Derangement Syndrome than The Gavin himself.
I'll give you both a tie on that one!
Whadda ya talking about - Polly is right!
Yes, the Central Coast is still blue. People don’t change their registration much and the R advantage in new registrations is tiny as a share of district voters.
Not True. If the older Dems are dying off and the new registrants are Republicans than it is possible.
New Registrants since Oct 25 in California 48 k Republicans vs. 190 Dems.
And if you pass Voter ID then we can see what the actual legal votes are.
https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ror/15day-gen-2024/historical-reg-stats.pdf
1) The statistics being cited in this article and your report are a rounding error relative to current registration rates.
2) Democrats outstrip Republican registration by a factor of almost 2:1 in CA, a 5-million vote margin.
3) How big are recent shifts? Between 2020 and 2024, the Dems’ share of registration dropped from 46.13% to 45.83%. Republicans don’t need a net advantage of thousands of voters in voter registration shifts, they need an advantage of hundreds of thousands to get anywhere close to making CA competitive.
The best studies in poli sci show that voter ID has minimal effects on voter registration or turnout one way or another. See work by Justin Grimmer.
I say this as someone who would like CA to have a viable two-party competition: statistical “analyses” like this don’t do the Republican Party any favors.
I agree that the lack of competition is not good. Having grown up in a purple swing area of the country, where each party pivots towards the center because seats can be lost, better candidates have to bubble up in both parties, and the general voter political IQ is much higher on issues. Compare Northern VA, Central AZ, PA to voter political IQ here; it's not even close. It's SB, it's sunny and blue skies, what's wrong? Competition with better candidates and better-informed voters is a win-win.
Case in point, outside of our district, no one knows Salud Carbajal. He's never on shows like Bill Maher, Meet the Press, CNN's roundtable, etc. He's only passed one piece of legislation (renaming a post office), and he doesn't sit on any major committees as a ranking member or lead an appropriation. Our district is at the bottom of federal discretionary funding, and our Universities are at the bottom of federal research dollars.
Outside of Vandenberg, our district is invisible on the federal level because our leader is invisible; this is an objective fact. But he has a great smile, posts a social daily, and Democrats won't run a better leader against him because all they care about is the vote 100% their way with a safe seat, and his campaign funds to use nationally for the DNC from wealthy SB. That's it. But ask a lot of voters here what he does, what pieces of legislation he's passed, what he's done for immigration reform, you won't get a single real answer; they have no clue. Talk to an average person in District-1 PA, and both sides will give you a factual laundry list of what Brian Fitzpatrick is or is not doing for them.
Bob, I'll vote for you and I'm a DINO, or more so an Independent/declining to state. As a DINO I've never voted for the speakers I saw yesterday at the No Kings thing. Not Salud, Gregg, Moniuqe, Laura, Hannah-Beth or any others. . . except for my buddy Eric Friedman. That being said the numbers are against you and the writer here, Kimberly.
SB County has 114k registered Dems, 62k registered Republicans, and 10k Indies.
And I'm sorry Kimberley but the inroads you site will not change the outcome. You folks don't have the votes.
Dan, thanks for the support. You sound like you're in the same boat as my wife, a Democrat who doesn't identify with many of our politicians and how far left the party has gone. She's also an Eric fan.
There's a mistake in your numbers, though. First, remember that the district covers all three counties, so there are many more voters than just SB. In SB County though, there are over 65k independents/NPP. American Independence is a minor party conservative, which is at 10k; however, last time I looked at an article on it for CA, 80% of them didn't realize that and marked it as "Independent." There are approximately 52k NPP voters and about 8k from other minor parties. So add that altogether to get closer to ~65k.
So in a midterm, I need 28k more of you and my wife from that pool with crossover votes! A R doesn't get much more independent thinking than I am, so that's the goal with an appeal to moderates who want change here. I'm providing an alternative with a track record of actual leadership and getting things done.
I will not dispute you, I will just say this. My mother, a great grandmother was wheeled to the Texas home of hers. My sister made a sigh that said, “When Grandma shows up to a protest you know things are bad.”
The point is just because you're registered with party doesn't mean people vote along party lines. I know many Dems voting No on 50,so your point is not accurate. Three Counties in Cali are turning red including our Neighbors to the north SLO.
It's hard to deal with the truth but unfortunately the Dem party is dying and this last nonsense,dem shutdown and ridiculous protest, just dug the grave even deeper.
That makes sense to me, we’ll see the result with Prop 50.
Thanks for the comment Dan. I think the current registration trends are proving that the GOP has stopped the Dems' "forward progress" where we were slowly becoming a one-party state over the last decade and has started to move the numbers back to the center. SB County is interestingly a near miniature of the state. The state is 44.96% Dem, 25.26% GOP and 22.55% NPP. SB County is 46.16% Dem, 25.24% GOP and 20.85% NPP. The GOP added an entire percentage point in the past year in both data sets.
SLO County and Ventura County have higher percentages of GOP than the state average.
Ventura's Assembly District 42 has the following stats:
Dems: 40.06%
GOP: 31.53%
NPP: 20.85%
Jeff Gonzalez won his seat in Riverside County in Nov 2024, flipping AD-36 red. His district's stats are:
Dems: 40.92%
GOP: 29.12%
NPP: 22.60%
As you can see, AD-42 has a higher percentage of GOP compared to NPP than AD-36, and they are super close to bringing the Dems below 40%. I think that it very much a toss-up seat heading into 2026.
Exactly. If the Republicans want sane elected officials in CA they need to win with fiscally responsible, moderate, and economically literate Democrats. People like Daniel Lurie or Matt Mahan.
That’s why I strongly support Bob Smith for Congress both donating to his campaign and volunteering time! We need Bob Smith representation. We each must work to unseat reader Salud.
Yes, I was excited that Daniel Lurie won against London Breed. The uber-progressive wing of the Dem party had gone too far left. Lurie will hopefully make San Fran business friendly again.
Where do you get your wacky numbers? The idea is directionally correct - the GOP as has added over 30K since Feb 25 and the Dem less at 26k. So the difference is close to your 4.5. But to write the democrats have only added 198 is just wrong.
https://abev.optiqdata.com/
I updated because there are new numbers since Oct 25
That's net - so yes, they registered more, lost almost as many.
Where do you get your numbers?
lala land like you, or maybe your weegee board most likely.
As of October 2025, California has seen a slight increase in Republican voters, gaining about 48,000 new registrations, while the Democratic Party has gained only 190 new voters. Currently, nearly half of all voters are registered Democrats, while 25% are registered Republican
Agreed! They got 190 new voters - which sucks for them. But they did get like 26,000 new voters. They just lost just about as many.
No Voter ID means anyone can vote. Voter roles in California were cleaned up recently but still until Voter ID is implemented anyone can vote especially by mail.
Both sides are delusional about the effect of voter ID. Voter ID won’t disfranchise more than a handful of voters and there is not some army of ineligible voters casting ballots, and the Republicans have never been able to show that this is a problem involving more than a few hundred voters per state. Sloppy/slow voter file maintenance is not evidence of fraud.
For example, unbeknownst to me I was left on the voter rolls in my hometown for 15 years even after registering m in four other cities of residence at various points as I moved in my 20s. That’s not fraud, and no one has shown that voter file deadwood drives any fraud.
See Grimmer and Hersh—none of this stuff matters much. https://academic.oup.com/jla/article/16/1/1/7641615
What does matter in CA is that old white conservatives are dying and only immigrants and nonwhite ethnic groups have high fertility rates. The Republicans can pick up those new voters on the margins but they are losing the demographic battle.
The Older DEMS are dying out and being replaced with Republicans and new Registration in all of California reflects. Living in a bubble in SB and not seeing the recent of California isn't the true interpretation of voters in California.
Why do Dems love their illegals so much,beacuse they are there biggest voters and since anyone who mails in a ballot without ID checked or residency than those votes are processes and counted.
That's why the Dems promise the illegals with free this and that and why they shut down our government and don't want to lose them or their illegal votes.
I have seen the white population explode with new births and multiple children. Although difficult to afford much in this county,it is happening
Do you trust the reporting on Noozhawk? I do sometimes, which is why I question their story today that 13,000 people attended the No Kings rally is SB. I was there and I have no way of counting, but 10k wouldn't surprise me.
Now, my friend GM, who are these 10,000 SB residents that showed up? Count as many voters as you want in Kimberley's statistics. Do you MAGA folks show up in these numbers, locally? And when have you ever seen this many people show up for any of your local political events?
And what did the little temper tantrum do for your political party except show how ridiculous these are. All funded by Soros,Rothschild and Billionaires. Supported by Communist parties,see your Flyer.
Yes Conservatives showed up in Large numbers to Charlie Kirks memorial and other gatherings.
All this protest was a whiny fest because you didn't win an election.
Maybe all those people could of volunteered to help and make a difference in the community and instead of making yourselves feel good as narcissist do.
I don’t understand anything you say here.
?? Did you read anything Dan posted above??
Rothschild? Antisemitic dogwhistle if I've ever heard one.
Voter ID is worthless unless and until Proof of Citizenship required to register, and there’s a paid mandate to Counties to annually clean their roles. Why did 3 ballots get mailed for my son? Why do DACAs ask if it’s ok to cast ballots mailed to them?
And yet the Democrats continue to enjoy a huge advantage.
I’ll be happy to make a side bet with anyone on this list—with favorable odds—that no Republican will win office in any of the Central Coast assembly, State Senate, or Congressional districts through 2030. DM me.
Let’s at least enter the world of predictions with real stakes. What will be the R share of registration in CA in 2028?
It’s not gambling when it’s a guaranteed payout. Above all, people who don’t back up their predictions with investments/stakes can’t be taken seriously.
It's going to be an interesting election cycle, especially when many provisions of the big. Beautiful Bill kick in next month and Republican leader can no longer pretend tariffs are NOT paid, in the end, by consumers.
And Mike might have to seat the House..... and see what get's voted to be released?
I read this article titled "Is the Central Coast Still Blue?"
By Kimberly Caldwell. I have a new title that was recently stated in Congress>
"Don't Give Me This 'Both Sides' Bullshit" Not my words see link below>
https://x.com/MAGAVoice/status/1979723813203128474
In Yesterday's column I read all of the posts and people here at SB Current
truly seem to be Fed-Up of the "Horse Manure" in this Town.
Let's all listen to Willie on some "Horse Manure" >>>>>
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gq5XfutsPkA&list=RDGq5XfutsPkA&start_radio=1
Howard Walther, member of a Military Family.
Kimberly, I never trust stories that are based with statistics and "facts." As you know, there are always alternative facts.
The latest statistics that I found are this, 114,000 registered Democrats in SB county. 62,000 Republicans and 10,000 Independents. Even if your changes in statistics are correct you/Republicans are still on the losing side. It gives me no joy to state this but I think it's obvious.
There are only a handful of races that cover SB County as a whole, District Attorney, Sheriff, etc.
Our Assembly, Senate, and Congressional districts all cross county lines because our counties aren't populous enough for their own district. The Independent Commission has done a very good job though in trying to keep individual towns "whole." SLO and Ventura Counties are becoming far more conservative, which will likely push our district races into "toss-up" category if these trends hold up in the next year. SLO County in fact only has 5200 more Dem voters than GOP. When you add in the NPP numbers, you find out why SLO County's tough-on-crime sheriff Ian Parkinson and DA Dan Dow both ran unopposed in their last election. The Dems don't do well in county-wide races.