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Paul Aijian MD's avatar

Bob Smith and I spoke the other day, and his comment was that he needs the independents to vote for him as well as getting out the Republican base. We need to do all we can to rid ourselves of the misrepresentation of our area by Hart and Carbajal. Both are awful examples of everything wrong with Democrat policies.

And for Pity sake, get out and vote NO ON 50 !

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cambrai's avatar

Where do GOP and Independents share their Venn Diagram (ahem) common ground?

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Montecito93108's avatar

https://abev.optiqdata.com/ Click to get updates on Prop 50 . Enter in search bar US Congressional District 24. Scroll down. Then enter your school district, or other districts, which I did. DEMOCRATS and elders are voting in high numbers except for in a few specific districts where Young Republicans came out in force. Democrats will win if we can’t deliver NO Votes. As of Friday:

2,129,661

Returned Ballot

D+22.6%

Return Margin

No Party Preference voters are the deciders! See for yourself by taking 5 minutes to click & scroll.

More Republicans and NPPs need to vote. What happened to civic duty?!?

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Robert "Bob" Smith's avatar

More important than changes in voter registration is whether people will actually vote for change. It’s pretty nonsensical to see thousands of people, with our politicians, protesting the “bad man” in the White House while California and the Central Coast are objectively at the bottom in almost every measurable category - cost of living, cost of housing, cost of energy, cost of gasoline, homeownership rates under 40, job creation, homelessness, poverty, and 65% of our kids not meeting 12th-grade standards.

Our congressman has done nothing for five terms. No major legislation passed, not a ranking member on any key committee, no meaningful wins for this district. This is what happens in either party when a supermajority exists - no competition, no accountability, and seats held forever. You either get the self-serving career politicians like Pelosi and McConnell who get rich off the system, or the nice-guy placeholders like Carbajal, who you wouldn’t have run your kid’s lemonade stand, yet keeps getting rubber-stamp reelected.

Meanwhile, thousands of people are being manipulated into protesting things like immigration enforcement because it gives these same politicians a villain to point at instead of being held accountable for their own failures. Bill Clinton deported 12 million, Obama 8 million, Trump 1.5 million, yet somehow this administration is “the problem”? Farmers and hospitality managers will tell you immigration enforcement has been here for decades.

It’s all political theater designed to keep people against each other.

So how bad does California have to get before people stop voting for the same people and actually demand results? When do we decide enough is enough and bring some balance back here?

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cambrai's avatar

These astro-turf Democrat TDS rallies are just teasers to draw out the willing. They are in fact networking for their election day Get Out The Vote (GOTV) efforts.

Collecting names, volunteers, connections and check lists to see if they all in fact did get out and vote. Check My Ballot ensures all government employee unions members can offer proof they in fact did vote too. Or else.

One more self-serving Democrat "election reform". GOP has nothing even close to the Democrat GOTV discipline and organization. And immediate threats of consequences.

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Earl Brown's avatar

“So how bad does California have to get before people stop voting for the same people?” Answer - never. Why?

a) People are stupid

b) They believe the Commie-Dem pablum- promises.

We need a street-fighting ass-kicker like Trump less interested in sermonizing the moral high ground and more interested in winning. Promise the people what they want to hear even if it needs to be a little ‘creative’ with the truth. Like Vince Lombardi said - “Winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing!”

Boss Tweed (New York) had the right idea - controlled Tammany Hall, stole millions, and still had crowds cheering him at parades. My kinda guy! It's called - p-o-l-i-t-i-c-s !

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EnoughIsEnough805's avatar

Reply to Kimberly Caldwell – “Is the Central Coast Still Blue?”

Kimberly — fantastic piece. You nailed what a lot of us here on the Central Coast have been seeing but couldn’t quite put numbers to. The tide really is turning, and it’s refreshing to finally see someone back it up with facts instead of talking points.

Your breakdown of the voter shift across SLO, Santa Barbara, and Ventura counties is eye-opening. People are tired of the same recycled promises and the same names on the ballot. The energy is different this time — you can feel it at the local level, from small businesses to kitchen tables.

It’s about time voters here demand real leadership again. Salud “Crocked Salud” Carbajal’s long run of coasting on party loyalty is coming to an end. Time to hand him his final walking papers and let the people of the Central Coast be heard loud and clear.

Keep shining a light, Kimberly — great reporting and spot-on perspective.

No On 50! Save Prop 13!

Require verifiable VOTER ID!

Save CA and the Central Coast! #BobSmithForCongress

— Walt Hutton

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Montecito93108's avatar

Prop 50 Update: yes is crushing NO. Are Republicans waiting to cast their ballots? Help get out the vote. Text, email, ask others to vote.

2,129,661

Returned Ballots

D+22.6%

Return Margin

In Candidate Bob Smith’s US Congressional District 24:

456,078

Registered Voters

D+18.0%

Registration Advantage

28,534

Prop 50 Returned Ballots

D+26.5% voting YES

Author statement of close registration is incorrect, or I misread it.

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Emmett's avatar

Explains why the Democrat Legislatures want to change the Census lines. They’re losing CA and need to harvest all the votes they can in new districts that will help them.

Curious though. If before the Kamala/Trump election Dems lost millions in voters it’s odd that the election was that close.

Most who update their party preference are likely to vote.

Either way Midterms will be interesting as CA & NY become battleground states.

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cambrai's avatar

Democrats will lose even more "safe" voting districts, if a current SCOTUS ruling declares "race-based voting districts" are unconstitutional and a violation of equal protection rights in all states. Final outcome is still pending at the US Supreme Court.

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cambrai's avatar

Thank you for the local state assembly seats we need to target, because we are all in this together. Do not re-elect Gregg Hart (local) or Julia Brownlee (Ventura). This means we must support with donations and/or volunteer time well outside our own local areas, in order to maximize our influence in Sacramento.

Breaking up the Democrat super-majority in Sacramento must be job number one.

This at least restricts their plenipotentiary powers granted after Democrats achieved super-majority status. Then later we can work to over-turn their simple majority. But breaking up their super-majority status it absolutely critical to the long-term health of this entire state. No matter which combination of state-wide districts it takes to do this.

Just a few more assembly district wins in the right direction will at least break up this overly concentrated super-majority body of continued Democrat resistance, control, micro-managing and continued budgetary irresponsibility.

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cambrai's avatar

BEWARE OF THE TRANSLUCENT PROP 50 BALLOT RETURN ENVELOPES

Anyone along the very leaky Prop 50 ballot chain of custody can toss out your NO vote ballot, just by backlighting the sealed envelope and clearly seeing how you voted.

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cambrai's avatar

Virginia GOP care about their ballots using the "punched envelope hole" trick disclosing their votes too. Just like has been and still is getting used in California.

But these translucent ballot envelopes used in SB County go even one step further. Virginia GOP admits "mail in ballots" are the weakest link in the ballot cheating chain of all.

Why is this translucent ballot flaw getting zero traction here and among our own GOP groups? And we only got gas-lighted about our own punched hole ballots by the Secy of State, claiming it our fault if we do not check to see if any ballot marking "coincidentally" lines up with the punched ballot hole.

Yet she makes zero mention of the SB County translucent ballots that need only a backlight to see the full contents.

https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/new-virginia-republicans-sound-the-alarm-over-flawed-ballots-cmc/?utm_medium=agg&utm_source=economics

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Polly Frost's avatar

Thank you, elce.

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Randall Fox's avatar

Kim, Nice article. We don't often see the detail and facts presented in your piece. Keep up the good work!

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Justin M. Ruhge's avatar

YES, vote NO on Prop 50, as I have already.

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GM's avatar
Oct 19Edited

Thank you Kimberly. This is the reason that the Dems was Prop 50 to pass isbecause the Dems know they will never win an election again. They change the rules in order to win.

I also had read that three Counties in California were turning red including SLO County. In addition since February in California there were 4.5 k new Rebulican voters registered and only 198 New Democrat Voters registered.

There is hope for California.

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Kimberly Caldwell's avatar

Thankfully, they have to get their scheme passed by CA voters. Many No Party Preference voters will join with GOP in voting no. But the victory always belongs to those who show up and vote. Encourage your neighbors to turn in their ballots!

Prop 50 will only impact congressional districts. We can plan on getting rid of the Dem supermajority regardless of how Nov 4th shakes out.

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GM's avatar

That gives me hope. Thank you.

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cambrai's avatar

Local reporting on the latest No Kings protests was particularly repugnant, as if huge local government employee unions do command their members to show up and be counted. Or else .

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Charlene Milby Rossoll's avatar

I certainly hope so! NO on 50. Let us decide. And let’s keep the Charlie Kirk movement going! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

SANTA BARBARA BORN AND RAISED, ALWAYS A REPUBLICAN!

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Montecito93108's avatar

Get Republicans & NPPs to vote!

2,129,661

Returned

D+22.6%

Return Margin

Yes 50 will pass because GOP & NPP voters are MIA

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Earl Brown's avatar

50 will win.

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Lou Segal's avatar

"CD 24 is one or two points from being competitive"

What am I missing here? As of Nov 2024, the district had 227,000 Democratic voters and 101,000 Republican voters. How much movement has there been since then? Hopefully more than a few points. This is Carbajal's District.

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Kimberly Caldwell's avatar

Hi Lou, Thanks for question. I stated that CD24 is one or two points from being as competitive on paper as some districts that Republicans won in 2024. A lot more goes into a winning campaign of course: articulate candidate, good ground game, enthusiastic donors etc. But they all start with the raw data - I'm posing the question of whether you can still call the Central Coast a "reliably blue" area based on the current trends.

For example, compare the following data points:

CA Congressional District 11 (Nancy Pelosi)

Dems: 63.48%

GOP: 7.49%

NPP: 23.54%

Other: 5.49%

This is a safe blue district. No matter how good your GOP candidate is, you can't beat 63% registered Dems

CA Congressional District 43 (Maxine Waters)

Dems: 58.19%

GOP: 11.88%

NPP: 22.32%

Other: 7.61%

This is a safe blue district

CA Congressional District 22 (David Valadao Republican won)

Dems: 39.79%

GOP: 28.41%

NPP: 23.65%

Other: 8.15%

This district has been won by GOP for several election cycles. It is always listed as a toss-up during election season

CA Congressional District 26 (Julia Brownley)

Dems: 41.87%

GOP: 29.73%

NPP: 20.76%

Other: 7.64%

Ventura County GOP is growing quickly. They now have a larger GOP base than Valadao's district. The Dems in Ventura (41.87% only have 2.08% more voters than the Dems in Fresno (39.79%) who have lost CD-22 multiple times).

CA Congressional District 24 (Salud Carbajal)

Dems: 44.91%

GOP: 26.93%

NPP: 20.03%

Other: 8.13%

GOP is growing and is currently 1.48% behind Valadao's "base" voters who help him reach NPP with their volunteer hours and donations. This district crosses into both SLO and Ventura County where the GOP is out-registering Dems by 5x.

The raw data shows Carbajal's district is a lot closer to Ventura's CD26 and CD22 than it is to Nancy Pelosi's or Maxine Waters'. We have a plurality of parties on the Central Coast, not a one-party monopoly.

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Lou Segal's avatar

Kimberly, a 45% Dem and 27% Repub is not a competitive district. It would take a very well-known moderate GOP candidate who has a lot of money to have a chance. With all due respect to the current challenger, that is not the situation we have in the CD 24. In CD 22 you have a very popular incumbent who has been in office since 2012. The situation isn't comparable.

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Montecito93108's avatar

Lou- that authored statement is incorrect. How we wish US Congressional D24 was that close. It is not! We’ve work to do!

456,078

Registered Voters

D+18.0%

Registration Advantage

28,534

Prop 50 Returned Ballots

D+26.5% voting YES

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Kimberly Caldwell's avatar

Please see my reply to Lou above. Thanks for reading my article!

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Lou Segal's avatar

Prop 50 is going to pass because this is a very blue state that doesn't like Trump. I wish it was otherwise but I am not going to engage in wishful thinking. Republicans need to redistrict every red state in the country to counter this.

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Sandi Witcher's avatar

What is bothersome is the party divide in small city politics (small town/city planning commissions and city councils). In our small city (5000 population) our recently elected mayor campaigned on making our city “more liberal”. Not sure how that impacts decisions on building or water/sewer issues. But it does impact declarations for celebrations, decorations/banners hanging from city light poles or the painting of crosswalks. And, those are the items that seem to divide the city (new residents from SB to LA versus residents with longstanding history).

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CaliGirl's avatar

On the Sec of State website, each County's stats are displayed across two pages. Scroll down and you will see that the 3rd largest category in the state is NPP (no party preference where all independently-minded unaffiliated voters are counted). In SB county they make up 20.85% of the electorate (51,743 voters). Combine that with the Republicans, and you discover how the Dems have less than 50% of the voters in a supposedly "safe" Dem county (114k out of 248k). Approx half of the NPP voted for Trump in the last election. And if you look at non-partisan ballot issues like Prop 36, they are combining with all non-Dem voters to give the conservatives the victory. All of the data points show people leaving the Dem party, sitting on the fence as an NPP for a while, and then finding a home in the GOP.

Three of CA's major cities ousted their Soros-backed progressive DAs or Mayors or in some cases both in the past 2 years. The Central Coast may not be red yet, but it isn't dark blue anymore.

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cambrai's avatar

Democrat registration = government employees, their family members and friends.

GOP + Independent registration = Everyone else, who now must pay for out of control Democrat-voting government employee paychecks, perks and pensions. For the rest of their own lives .

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Polly Frost's avatar

Excellent, Kimberly. I know that California is becoming less and less lib-left. I grew up here and can see the signs. The Democratic Party knows it, too. And that’s why they will cheat their way to winning Prop 50. Our governor will do anything he can in the next year to show he’s really in power, not Trump. I do believe he’s that crazy. Or coked-out, same difference. Of course I’m not saying our governor would actually do cocaine, that’s just Zelenskyy! Newsom just acts like Pacino in Scarface! He’s really a down-to-earth regular narcissist-sociopath. “You think this state is going red? It sure is, my kind of red, China red. And say hello to my little friend.”

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Thomas John's avatar

I think you have Gavin Derngement Syndrome. Or bare minimum Dem DS.

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Howard Walther's avatar

Hello Thomas please see my post above I think SB Currentors

all have the "Both Sides Bullshit Syndrome" they all just

cannot stand Hypocrites in this Town.

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Polly Frost's avatar

Lol, right on, Walter!

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Polly Frost's avatar

Lol! Good one, Mr. John. But I couldn't possibly have a more sever case of Gavin Derangement Syndrome than The Gavin himself.

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Thomas John's avatar

I'll give you both a tie on that one!

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Earl Brown's avatar

Whadda ya talking about - Polly is right!

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