Although one can dismiss the results of last week’s elections by reminding oneself that “The party in power almost always takes it on the chin in off-year elections,” but just as there’s an “Off Broadway” and an “Off-Off Broadway,” I call the elections held between a presidential election and the real off-year election, the “off-off-year election.”
“Two-Bullets-To-The-Head” Jones, and Virginia
Virginia is at best a purple state. A very qualified Glenn Youngkin rode a very popular issue to victory four years ago, and he was capable of dragging two unknowns to statewide office with him.
True coattails.
This time around, Loudoun and Fairfax County federal workers were in no mood to play maverick and fell back in line with their party’s politburo. Some Democrats were energized to vote; too many Republicans were basking in the glory of their hero atop government in Washington, D.C. and not paying attention 10 months into his 2.0 term. Election cycles are very fatiguing for a lot of people.
Not much has been said about Winsome Earl-Sears‘s mediocre qualifications to make that big jump from Lt. Gov. to Governor. Also, she wasn’t onboard with the Trump Machine. Rather than tangling with her, the Prez ignored her. Trump, however, did embrace the incumbent Attorney General’s candidacy after Jay Jones made his major faux pas. For his efforts, Jay Jones received more than 300,000 fewer votes than did CIA-operative Abigail Spanberger. Coattails, of course, only work when your party’s voters show up at the polls. It’s my hunch that a better Republican turnout, but in keeping within the realm of an off-off-year election, would’ve saved the Attorney General’s spot. Republicans don’t need Virginia in the Electoral College in 2028.
The Not-So-Big Apple
As for Mamdani in New York City, this will soon be seen as an in-house UFC-type slug fest between the communist wing of the Democrat Party and the socialist wing. I’m going to stand clear of this brawl for fear of collateral damage. Getting splattered with those peoples’ sweat and blood would make me ill.
Just Across the Hudson River
New Jersey is a blue state - maybe not quite so blue as 10 years ago – which teases and tantalizes Republicans into thinking maybe occasionally they can break through that blue wall. “Occasionally” seems to arrive on the scene in time for every statewide election. New York and New Jersey politics are constructed in such a way as to prevent Republicans from breaking through that 46% glass ceiling. It’s a tease each cycle – just like 48% is a major tease for Democrats in North Carolina. Both losing parties throw millions of dollars down a black hole in NY, NJ, and NC.
Local Elections and Local Judges
What seems odd to me is pundits’ fetish to give undue importance to those Public Commissioner races in Georgia. Also, the judge retention races in Pennsylvania – or even the fact that a meaningless town in Chester County (PA) elected a man mayor who says (and apparently believes) he’s a woman. As one who considers himself native to the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, I can’t remember a judge not being retained. Some of those burbs in the necklace around Philadelphia are getting stranger and odder each decade. Gone are the days when the four counties next to Philadelphia were a Republican stronghold, made that way by corporate commuters dressed in white shirts who attended Episcopal or Presbyterian churches on weekends. As for the Georgia Public Commissioners, sounds like a lot of “local politics” involved.
As the 1970s bumper stickers used to shout out to passing motorists, “S**t Happens.”
Proposition 50
I am a bit disappointed that “NO” on Prop 50 has only received 36.2% in California. The default level in the Golden State is around 62% Democrat and 38% Republican. By the time all votes are tabulated, I wouldn’t be surprised if “NO” edges up to 38% or even 39%. Turnout in California is expected to be 8,000,000 voters out of a registered pool of 18,000,000 – about 45%. Democrats were itching for a victory of some sort in the Age of Trump – and their leaders convinced them that “YES” on Prop 50 would deliver a dagger to Trump’s heart as soon as November 2026. I’m not so sure of that logic. That analysis alone would take up a whole essay.
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Good summary.
I am not surprised by the CA vote on Prop 50.
Voters have been on an inexplicable suicide mission for many election cycles. When given the "opportunity" to pay a larger tax slice of their paychecks to further enrich the political and bureaucratic elites while concurrently diminishing their own quality of life...they jump at it...as evidenced by the majority of elected officials locally.
Hats off to Saul Alinsky...he called this many years ago...get the educational system to do your dirty work. It's the one area where education has succeeded.
Thanks for the re-cap. Well done. We voted at the polls not trusting Newsom's translucent ballot return envelopes, so our No on 50 votes may still be in the pile of uncounted California votes.
Gen Z voting patterns will need special scrutiny when the final numbers come in. If they keep voting Democrat, why are they not registering Democrat?