The California High-Speed Heist

by Derek Hanley

The official A.I. version of California’s High Speed Rail. Source: CHSR Authority

In 2008, California Governor Schwarzenegger and government officials issued an initiative in the form of a proposition asking voters to approve a $9.95-billion bond for the planning and construction of a high-speed rail system connecting San Francisco to Los Angeles. $9 billion was for the planning and construction of an 800-mile connection between the two cities and $950 million for securing connections to commuter rail systems.

The High-Speed Bullet Train Service that taxpayers approved, however, has now been estimated to cost $128 billion, nearly thirteen times the amount authorized by voters. This multi-billion-dollar boondoggle now comes with reduced specifications; the project is way behind schedule and more cost increases are likely as the years roll by.

In June 2016, Forbes magazine published an article entitled “California Bullet Train was born doomed and will never be completed.” Here is a quote from the article.

“California's high-speed rail project is a textbook example of crony corporatism – where powerful interests convince lawmakers to bestow valuable favors at taxpayer expense.”

Even with failure after failure, successive governors have kept this non-viable project going.

Ego over common sense ruled. After all, the federal government was kicking in money and California could not be seen to fail.

“If Japan can do it,” the thinking went, “so can California.”

The problem is – and it’s a big one – none of Japan's High-Speed Rail Companies are profitable on a full-cost basis. And, the Japanese government, borrowing to build High Speed Rail systems and other major expenditures during a period of a declining and aging population, raised its national debt to the highest in the world as a percentage of GDP. Some believe this has led to twenty or more years of economic stagnation.

Only in China, does there appear to be a High-Speed Bullet train system that makes money, though there is hope that others might break-even, according to the Chinese Communist government.

Compare the Chinese Bullet Train that makes money with the proposed California Bullet train project:

The profitable Chinese Bullet train service runs from Shanghai to Beijing, a distance of 819 miles. Shanghai has a population of 29.1 million and Beijing's population is 21.77 million. The Bullet Train trip from one city to the other takes 4 hours 18 minutes, averaging 200 MPH.

The population of the Los Angeles metro area is 12.53 million and the population of San Francisco is 883,255; if we include the entire Bay Area, the wine country, and Silicon Valley, it tops out at seven million.

L.A. To San Francisco is 382.3 miles and takes just over six hours to drive by car. The bullet train is estimated to take two hours and 40 minutes to travel 382 miles an average speed of 139 mph. The Shanghai to Beijing distance is 819 miles and takes 4 hours 18 minutes by bullet train averaging 200 miles an hour.

The population pool for the Shanghai to Beijing Bullet Train is larger than the entire population of California at 51 million, compared with the San Francisco and Los Angeles population pool of 19.5 million. The average speed of the Chinese Trip between Shanghai and Beijing is 200 mph; the Los Angeles Bullet train is 139 mph.

Just these indicators alone demonstrate that the competitive advantages of a huge population base and a reliable average of 200 mph over longer distances, make all the difference in potential profitability of bullet train investments.

Always be wary of government initiatives issued as propositions for public vote, rather than be passed via the legislative process.

Contemplating the Big One

As we think about bullet trains passing through earthquake country and as we await more use of the War Powers Act by Biden to enforce an all-electric regime upon us, we should anticipate the possibility of a major quake that scientists confidently predict will occur within thirty years.

The Director of the Southern California Earthquake center is quoted as saying that the San Andreas Fault appears to be in a critical state. As such, it could generate a large earthquake imminently. He warned that the southern portion of the of the Fault “Looks likes it is locked loaded and ready to go.” That means it could happen next year or in five years, right in the middle of Biden's dictate that all appliances and all vehicles must be powered by electricity.

Predictions of the potential quake’s strength range between 6.8 and 8.0 on the Richter scale. This force and the aftershocks would cause considerable damage, in a range of many billions, possibly up to a trillion dollars.

The death toll has been estimated at 1,800. Many deaths will be caused by fires during and after the quakes. While few buildings are built on or close to the fault, there are 39 gas pipes, 141power lines and 90 fiber optic cables that cross the fault.

Given the tectonics of the region, multiple, large aftershocks can be expected. When it occurs, it will massively affect Southern California, including Santa Barbara. No doubt too that the entire electric grid – mandated by President Biden and juiced by Governor Newsom – will collapse in the event and its aftermath.

Only gas-powered vehicles would be able to move, but there likely won’t be many of those around.

Welcome to the new world of socialist government central planning.