In 2008, California Governor Schwarzenegger and government officials issued an initiative in the form of a proposition asking voters to approve a $9.95-billion bond for the planning and construction of a high-speed rail system connecting San Francisco to Los Angeles. $9 billion was for the planning and construction of an 800-mile connection between the two cities and $950 million for securing connections to commuter rail systems.
The High-Speed Bullet Train Service that taxpayers approved, however, has now been estimated to cost $128 billion, nearly thirteen times the amount authorized by voters. This multi-billion-dollar boondoggle now comes with reduced specifications; the project is way behind schedule and more cost increases are likely as the years roll by.
In June 2016, Forbes magazine published an article entitled “California Bullet Train was born doomed and will never be completed.” Here is a quote from the article.
“California's high-speed rail project is a textbook example of crony corporatism – where powerful interests convince lawmakers to bestow valuable favors at taxpayer expense.”
Even with failure after failure, successive governors have kept this non-viable project going.
Ego over common sense ruled. After all, the federal government was kicking in money and California could not be seen to fail.
“If Japan can do it,” the thinking went, “so can California.”
The problem is – and it’s a big one – none of Japan's High-Speed Rail Companies are profitable on a full-cost basis. And, the Japanese government, borrowing to build High Speed Rail systems and other major expenditures during a period of a declining and aging population, raised its national debt to the highest in the world as a percentage of GDP. Some believe this has led to twenty or more years of economic stagnation.
Only in China, does there appear to be a High-Speed Bullet train system that makes money, though there is hope that others might break-even, according to the Chinese Communist government.
Compare the Chinese Bullet Train that makes money with the proposed California Bullet train project:
The profitable Chinese Bullet train service runs from Shanghai to Beijing, a distance of 819 miles. Shanghai has a population of 29.1 million and Beijing's population is 21.77 million. The Bullet Train trip from one city to the other takes 4 hours 18 minutes, averaging 200 MPH.
The population of the Los Angeles metro area is 12.53 million and the population of San Francisco is 883,255; if we include the entire Bay Area, the wine country, and Silicon Valley, it tops out at seven million.
L.A. To San Francisco is 382.3 miles and takes just over six hours to drive by car. The bullet train is estimated to take two hours and 40 minutes to travel 382 miles an average speed of 139 mph. The Shanghai to Beijing distance is 819 miles and takes 4 hours 18 minutes by bullet train averaging 200 miles an hour.
The population pool for the Shanghai to Beijing Bullet Train is larger than the entire population of California at 51 million, compared with the San Francisco and Los Angeles population pool of 19.5 million. The average speed of the Chinese Trip between Shanghai and Beijing is 200 mph; the Los Angeles Bullet train is 139 mph.
Just these indicators alone demonstrate that the competitive advantages of a huge population base and a reliable average of 200 mph over longer distances, make all the difference in potential profitability of bullet train investments.
Always be wary of government initiatives issued as propositions for public vote, rather than be passed via the legislative process.
Contemplating the Big One
As we think about bullet trains passing through earthquake country and as we await more use of the War Powers Act by Biden to enforce an all-electric regime upon us, we should anticipate the possibility of a major quake that scientists confidently predict will occur within thirty years.
The Director of the Southern California Earthquake center is quoted as saying that the San Andreas Fault appears to be in a critical state. As such, it could generate a large earthquake imminently. He warned that the southern portion of the of the Fault “Looks likes it is locked loaded and ready to go.” That means it could happen next year or in five years, right in the middle of Biden's dictate that all appliances and all vehicles must be powered by electricity.
Predictions of the potential quake’s strength range between 6.8 and 8.0 on the Richter scale. This force and the aftershocks would cause considerable damage, in a range of many billions, possibly up to a trillion dollars.
The death toll has been estimated at 1,800. Many deaths will be caused by fires during and after the quakes. While few buildings are built on or close to the fault, there are 39 gas pipes, 141power lines and 90 fiber optic cables that cross the fault.
Given the tectonics of the region, multiple, large aftershocks can be expected. When it occurs, it will massively affect Southern California, including Santa Barbara. No doubt too that the entire electric grid – mandated by President Biden and juiced by Governor Newsom – will collapse in the event and its aftermath.
Only gas-powered vehicles would be able to move, but there likely won’t be many of those around.
Welcome to the new world of socialist government central planning.
With a brain-dead Biden and a brain-less Kamala at the helm (purportedly), and hare (hair?)-brained Newsom in charge of California, we'll be in great shape to combat a New Ice Age... no, Global Warming... wait, Climate Change, yeah, yeah, that's it!
This was predictably a financial disaster and who's lack of mandated oversight undermines the false tax-payer protections in ballot measures.
The 2008 enabling Proposition 1A legislation contains number of mandatory design characteristics, two very important of many have long been acknowledged as unachievable in the current designs but are never mentioned in press reporting: the maximum nonstop service travel times between San Francisco and Los Angeles shall not exceed two hours and 40 minutes; and passengers shall have the capability of traveling from any station to any other without being required to change trains.
How has the project has moved so far forward in apparent violation of these specific voter-approved provisions? Is there no oversight requiring the project comply with the Proposition? Neither the Senate Transportation Committee nor the required Peer Review Panel ever address these, the proverbial "elephants in the room", and continue to release the bond funds.
The enabling legislation requirements are specific yet never, ever achievable:
Section 2704.09. The high-speed train system to be constructed pursuant to this chapter shall be designed to achieve the following characteristics:
(a) Electric trains that are capable of sustained maximum revenue operating speeds of no less than 200 miles per hour.
(b) Maximum nonstop service travel times for each corridor that shall not exceed the following:
(1) San Francisco-Los Angeles Union Station: two hours, 40 minutes. (2) Oakland-Los Angeles Union Station: two hours, 40 minutes.
(3) San Francisco-San Jose: 30 minutes.
(4) San Jose-Los Angeles: two hours, 10 minutes.
(5) San Diego-Los Angeles: one hour, 20 minutes.
(6) Inland Empire-Los Angeles: 30 minutes.
(7) Sacramento-Los Angeles: two hours, 20 minutes.
(c) Achievable operating headway (time between successive trains) shall be
five minutes or less.
(d) The total number of stations to be served by high-speed trains for all of
the corridors described in subdivision (b) of Section 2704.04 shall not exceed 24. There shall be no station between the Gilroy station and the Merced station.
(e) Trains shall have the capability to transition intermediate stations, or to bypass those stations, at mainline operating speed.
(f) For each corridor described in subdivision (b), passengers shall have the capability of traveling from any station on that corridor to any other station on that corridor without being required to change trains.
The voters were sold a bill of goods and no one in government is protecting our interests.