Miracle in the 1st Supervisorial District
by Mike Stoker
Last week we analyzed the results in the 3rd Supervisorial District. Today let’s turn to the 1st.
When the final votes are tabulated, Roy Lee will officially be the 1st District Supervisor Elect. And, as I’ve been saying for months, if there was going to be an upset in the primary election it would be Mr. Lee.
Roy winning the election is the Olympic Ice Hockey version of “Miracle on Ice,” when a bunch of college kids took on and beat the seasoned and professional Russian team to win the gold medal in the 1980 Olympics at Lake Placid.
And he did it.
So how did it happen?
There were three reasons why he could potentially pull off an upset win against Das Williams, the seasoned politician.
First, we needed to ensure that no Republicans ran so that it would be a two-person race. That way it was guaranteed one candidate would win. Why that was important is the turnout model for a General Election in a Presidential election would be much more favorable to Das Williams than the Primary Election.
One of the reasons for that is that the Republican turnout would be much heavier than the normal turnout for the Primary because on the Republican ballot was Donald Trump and all those opposing Trump. On the Democrat ballot was only Biden. For Democrats, there was no reason to turn out as far as the top of the ticket was concerned. For Republicans, Trump voters would turn out to support their man and those opposing Trump would show up to express their opposition.
While the race for the Presidential nomination was essentially over by Super Tuesday, the dynamics of the pro-Trump and anti-Trump sentiment in the Republican party assured a much better than normal turnout for Republicans. Hence, for Roy to win, it was essential that no Republican run in the 1st that would have guaranteed a run-off in the General Election. With no Republicans running, Republicans could work hard to make sure Republicans voted for Roy.
Second, Das Williams was likely to seriously miscalculate his own vulnerability. Many of us believed that Das thought he had this race in the bag. If Das did take the race seriously, there was very little chance of Roy winning. We couldn’t know whether Das would run a serious campaign or not. For that, we would have to just sit back and watch and wait. But I would have been shocked if Das took Roy seriously as an opponent.
And when you don’t take opponents seriously, upsets happen.
The third reason was that with no Republican running (Roy Lee is a Democrat), a higher than usual Republican turnout but an overall low turnout that was expected for this primary, Roy needed to energize those Democrats who for a variety of reasons had grown tired of Das. That number of Democrats was far from a majority of the registered Democrats in the 1st Supervisorial District. But if those Democrats were energized and voted, then their vote with essentially all the Independents and Republicans voting for Roy, Roy could win.
And the miracle in the First District happened because all three of these factors occurred. And they happened because anyone who knows Roy likes him. They like him because he brings a naivete and innocence to politics that has been lacking for some time on the Board of Supervisors. He has been a City Councilman who shows up, does his job, votes the way his conscience tells him to vote, and not how any political party or special interest group tells him, and does everything in a very open and transparent manner.
I strongly believe that will be the Roy Lee we all will see on the Board of Supervisors come next January. Instead of being the predictable County Supervisor who aligns himself with a party or a special interest, Roy will not align himself with anyone or anything other than having a good conscience of just doing what in his heart he believes is the right thing to do. And I believe the County Board of Supervisors will be a better political body as a whole because of that.
Congratulations Roy, for pulling off your surprising victory in the 1st.
You are indeed our local “Miracle on Ice.”
I am one of the Republicans who supported Roy Lee. I even wrote him a check. They say politics makes strange bedfellows. I’m glad to see the departure of Das. It does not mean the departure of the dominant Democrat party, which is destroying our state and nation. But, in a small way, Roy’s victory was a win for all of us.
Term limits, the way it is supposed to work. By will of the voters on the merits; not by passive fiat.